Thursday, April 19, 2012

Diplomatic Solution With China The Only Recourse

I'm going to put it bluntly, the Americans will not help us - unless China engages in conventional and terrestrial warfare on Philippine territory. 

US mum on PHL-China sea dispute (PhilStar, 2012)
"The United States is mum on the circumstances under which it would intervene on behalf of the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea even as US troops began a joint military exercise with Filipino soldiers off Palawan.
The US Congressional Research Service (CRS) said although both sides have denied that the activities are aimed specifically at China, Beijing has raised concern about their real purpose.
The CRS report, prepared for members and committees of Congress, said the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) left room for different interpretations."

If Malacanang would persist on standing its ground - or water in this case, and if China really needs to ameliorate its power - as in energy - hungry economy by means of annexing Scarborough Shoal, our navy would stand little to no chance of ever coming out of this alive.



I'm sorry and I have full respect for the brave men and women of our Armed Forces, Navy and Airforce. But they themselves have admitted that they do not have the naval capability to engage in maritime warfare against the Chinese or any other nation.

It's a lost cause and probably the same reason why the "newly" acquired Navy cutter was named Gregorio del Pilar. Read your history books...
"In March 2008, the Navy admitted that it lacked the ability to defend its Spratly Islands claims against the other contender nations." (GlobalSecurity.org
That is why, the headlines of the Philippine Star suddenly changed tone today to

DFA: China a Friend of the Philippines

"The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) on Thursday reiterated that the Philippine government will continue to seek diplomatic solutions to resolve the Scarborough standoff despite China's rejection to settle the issue in the international court.
"China is a close neighbor, China is a friend of our country," Assistant Secretary Raul Hernandez, spokesperson of the DFA, said in a press conference."
Why is the Assistant Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs, making this seemingly conciliatory move? Why this, after this (Inquirer.net, 2012)
Philippine officials on Wednesday ignored China’s demand to withdraw Filipino vessels from Panatag Shoal, declaring “that’s our territory” and warning Chinese vessels to back off.
The officials said a Philippine Coast Guard search and rescue vessel, BRP Edsa, along with an archaeological survey mission aboard the MY Sarangani and a fishing boat, remained in the area, facing off  two Chinese maritime surveillance vessels and a fishing boat.
On Monday, China demanded that all Filipino vessels clear the area, which it calls Huangyan Island and which is known internationally as Scarborough Shoal, and sent an aircraft to buzz a Philippine fishing boat in the second such incident since Saturday.

Apparently our government is playing a game of who will blink first, while wishing just wishing that the Americans would come in and park their aircraft carriers...

All sides stand to lose if such a conflict were to emerge. The Americans have a lot of investments in China and vice versa. I am hypothesizing that they would play a bigger role here than the Chinese would want probably as arbiters or co-drillers when it's oil digging time.

Nevertheless, unless everybody has severely underestimated the need of China for these islands, the possibility of military conflict is very, very remote.

Meanwhile: Russia Sends Warships for China War Games

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